2025 has just begun, but the hangover from last year’s government funding drama is still casting a shadow on the House of Representatives.
With an incredibly slim margin, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson can’t afford to lose any more defections when the House elects a Speaker on January 3rd. Conservatives should realize that the Republican trifecta and President Donald Trump’s tax cut agenda would be seriously compromised by a costly fight to elect a new—and untested—Speaker. Retaining Speaker Johnson will be critical to navigating the challenges that the House of Representatives will face in enacting Trump’s pro-growth plans in reconciliation.
A drawn out battle to elect a new Speaker would only damage the odds of completing tax reform in the first year. The timeline for the budget reconciliation process ideally starts with a budget resolution setting the dollars and cents framework for major policy goals. In 2017, during the failed Affordable Care Act repeal and replace effort, the House and Senate were able to complete this step by January 13th. Yet, even under this ideal scenario for repeal—a Republican trifecta with over twenty more seats in the House than today—the effort still failed 206 days into the Congress. Today’s House faces an even more complex pathway, with numerous factions all competing for their say in the final tax package, let alone with any other policies moving on reconciliation, all on an incredibly slim margin. Any wasted time could prove fatal to these efforts.
Completing a tax package in year one also is critical for Republicans to demonstrate that they are working hard for everyday Americans. If President Trump signs the tax cuts into law, it could show that they are able to help address the extremely high cost of living, which was a huge factor in November’s election. Do Congressional Republicans want their first act out of the gate to be a messy, highly public family feud? Or do they want to project competence and unity—all while delivering on their promises? The complexity of the tax debate will certainly take a significant amount of time. Starting late only puts the country behind schedule when dealing with around $4 trillion in tax increases next year.
Procedural strategy aside, Speaker Johnson has proven to be well suited for the job. He delivered on several important wins for taxpayers, including the rescission of billions in Inflation Reduction Act funds, adherence to budget caps, and passage of the 2024 tax deal along with several of the National Taxpayers Union’s “No Brainers” bills.
If there’s a battle for the House’s gavel, then President Trump’s economic agenda will be imperiled—with huge consequences for taxpayers. Any new candidate would have to build bridges while trying to drive on them. Speaker Johnson is the most qualified applicant for the job he already has—and the first year of a Republican trifecta is no time for on the job training.