The Cost of Hillary Clinton's Campaign Spending Agenda

2016 Presidential Candidate Spending Platform Analysis: Hillary Clinton

An analysis of Donald Trump's campaign spending agenda is available here.

Economy, Transportation, & Infrastructure:

Build America Bonds:  “Hillary would re-authorize President Obama’s highly successful Build America Bonds program to stimulate billions of additional dollars in infrastructure investments.” (https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/infrastructure/)

Cost per Year: $2.8 billion* ($14 billion over five years*)

Notes: The Build America Bonds (BABs) program was originally established in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 that provided “subsidy payments to state and local governments that equal 35 percent of their interest costs on taxable bonds issued through December 31, 2010, to finance capital expenditures.” The subsidy payments on the bonds are recorded in the federal budget as outlays. President Obama’s 2013 budget proposed to reauthorize and extend BABs. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that this would increase outlays by $14 billion over the first five years.

* Note: NTUF assumes this funding would be included in Clinton’s $250 billion infrastructure grants program listed below.

Child Tax Credit: “Double the Child Tax Credit from $1,000 to $2,000 for each young child. ... Expand Child Tax Credit refundability ... .” (source)

Cost per Year: $12.1 billion ($121 billion over 10 years)

Notes: The American Enterprise Institute shared research with NTUF showing that expanding the credit and increasing its refundability would have an outlay effect of $121 billion over 10 years.

Coal Communities Revitalization: “And that’s why I’ve come forward with, for example, a plan to revitalize coal country, the coalfield communities that have been so hard hit by the changing economy, by the reduction in the use of coal.” (February 11, 2016 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: $3 billion ($30 billion over ten years)

Notes: In November 2015, Clinton announced a $30 billion plan to “revitalize coal communities.” NTUF assumes the outlays would occur over 10 years.

Earned Income Tax Credit - Expand for Workers without Children: “ ... [E]xpand refundable relief for low-income workers without children.” (source)

Cost per Year: $4.558 billion ($22.791 billion over five years)

Notes: The President’s FY 2017 budget proposal included a plan to expand the refundable Earned Income Tax Credit to workers without qualifying children, currently these filers receive a smaller benefit than those with qualifying children. The Administration estimates this would increase outlays by $22.8 billion over five years and by $53.5 billion over ten.

Equal Pay: "Clinton will fight to close the wage gap by promoting pay transparency across the economy and passing the Paycheck Fairness Act … .” (source)

Cost per Year: $3 million ($15 million over five years)

Notes: Related legislation has been introduced in the form of H.R. 1619/S. 862, the Paycheck Fairness Act that would enhance regulations pertaining to equal pay. The text of the bill authorizes $15 million for compliance training, a grant program for negotiation skills training for girls and women, and research, education, and outreach. NTUF assumes the outlays would occur over five years.

Export-Import Bank: “Hillary wants to … [d]efend and strengthen the Export-Import Bank … .” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear whether Clinton would seek to “strengthen” the program with additional funding.

Financial Crimes Prosecution: “[Clinton will] give prosecutors the resources they need to punish law-breakers. … Clinton would increase funding for the [Department of Justice], [Securities and Exchange Commission], and [Commodity Futures Trading Commission] … .” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Clinton has not specified the funding increases she would support for the various programs and units within the three agencies she identified that investigate or prosecute financial fraud crimes. In FY 2015, the Department of Justice requested a total of $682 million for financial fraud law enforcement. A cross-cutting budget total for FY 2016 is unavailable.

Housing: “[Lift] more families into sustainable homeownership and connecting housing to opportunity, through a $25 billion housing investment program.” (source)

Cost per Year: $2.5 billion ($25 billion over ten years)

Notes: This is part of Clinton’s Economic Revitalization Plan. NTUF assumes this funding would be spread over ten years.

Infrastructure Bank: “Hillary will allocate an additional $25 billion over five years to create an independent, government-owned infrastructure bank that will support critical infrastructure improvements. The bank will provide loans and other federal support for investments in energy, water, broadband, transportation, and multi-modal infrastructure projects.” (source)

           Cost per Year: $5 billion ($25 billion over five years)

Notes: Related legislation was introduced in the form of H.R. 3337, the National Infrastructure Development Bank Act of 2015. The text of the bill authorizes $5 billion per year in order to fund infrastructure improvement projects related to energy, the environment, transportation, and telecommunication.

Infrastructure Grants: “Hillary’s plan would boost federal infrastructure investment by $275 billion over the next five years. Under Hillary’s plan, $250 billion would go directly to public infrastructure investment.” (source)

Cost per Year: $50 billion ($250 billion over five years)*

Notes: This estimate was revised from $275 billion on May 17, 2016 to reflect that Clinton’s infrastructure bank proposal, listed separately, is included in and not in addition to the $275 billion total. $50 billion of the remaining funding would be dedicated to an Infrastructure for Opportunity Fund.

Make It in America Partnerships: “Hillary Clinton’s plan will dedicate $10 billion in funding toward “Make it in America Partnerships” that link together all parts of the supply chain and build on the strength of a region in particular industries.” (source)

Cost per Year: $2 billion ($10 billion over five years)

Notes: NTUF assumes that this funding would occur over five years, in coordination with Clinton’s related infrastructure grant programs.

Manufacturing Extension Partnership: “Double support for the Manufacturing Extension Partnership ... .” (source)

Cost per Year: $130 million (first-year cost)

Notes: In FY 2016, the Hollings Manufacturing Extension Partnership was funded at $130 million. Related legislation, S. 2779, the Manufacturing Extension Partnership Improvement Act of 2016, would double funding in the first year after enactment. (This estimated was updated 10/19/2016.)

Minimum Wage: “ … I believe in raising the minimum wage … .” (October 13, 2015 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Related legislation was introduced during the 113^th Congress in the form of S. 2223, the Minimum Wage Fairness Act. That bill would have gradually increased the federal minimum wage to $10.10 and indexed it to inflation in years thereafter. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) determined that the bill would not significantly impact federal outlays. It is unclear if this proposal would be scored similarly. In a related 2014 report, CBO noted that a minimum wage increase to $10.10 would reduce total employment by about 500,000 workers across the country. It is unclear whether this would impact outlays for unemployment benefits or other welfare programs.

Paid Family & Medical Leave National Benefit: “I also believe it’s about time we had paid family leave for American families and join the rest of the world ... .” (October 13, 2015 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: $2.368 billion ($11.842 billion over five years)

Notes: Related legislation was introduced in the form of S. 786, the Family and Medical Insurance Leave Act, which would increase payroll taxes 0.2 percent to finance a national benefit program. Adding this new payroll tax to the Office of Management and Budget’s estimates of total social insurance program receipts for years 2017-2021 yields a revenue estimate of $11.8 billion. NTUF assumes that the program’s costs align with the new tax receipts.

Clinton has stated that she would finance this new national program through a tax on high-income earners instead of increasing payroll taxes on employees, barring an official estimate, NTUF assumes the costs would be comparable to the proposed legislation.

People with Disabilities - Access to Employment: “Hillary will ... [i]mprove access to meaningful and gainful employment for people with disabilities.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear what policies Clinton would pursue to achieve this policy or whether they would increase outlays.

Pipelines – Regulation: “ ... Hillary Clinton will ... [i]mprove pipeline regulations, including instituting automatic or remote-controlled shut-off valves and leak detection standards that have been recommended by the National Transportation Safety Board.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Funding in FY 2016 for the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration’s pipeline safety programs totaled $147 million. It is unclear whether Clinton would increase funding to enforce the new regulations.

Pipelines - Repair and Replace: “ ... Hillary Clinton will ... [r]epair or replace thousands of miles of outdated pipelines to improve safety and reduce methane leaks by the end of her first term in office.” (source)

Cost per Year: $350 million ($3.5 billion over ten years)

Notes: It has been reported that it costs up to $1 million per mile to replace aging pipes.  In April 2015, the Department of Energy’s Quadrennial Energy Review recommended establishing “a competitive program to accelerate pipeline replacement and enhance maintenance programs for natural gas distribution systems” with an estimated price tag of up to $3.5 billion over ten years. NTUF assumes that Clinton would implement a similar plan, as opposed to financing through tax credits, in order to expedite the pipeline replacement.

Railways - Hazardous Materials Public Notification: “ ... Hillary Clinton will ... [i]nstruct the Department of Transportation to guarantee that first responders and the public have better information on oil and hazardous materials passing through their communities.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate is indeterminate.

Railways – Safety: “ ... Hillary Clinton will ... [a]ccelerate the phase-out of outdated tank cars that create the greatest safety risk and make information on companies’ progress available to the general public. Ensure rail regulations are strengthened and enforced within the United States and across the U.S.-Canada border.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Funding in FY 2016 for safety and operations programs in the Federal Railroad Administration totaled $199 million. It is unclear whether Clinton would increase funding to enforce the new regulations.

Railways - Track Maintenance: “ ... Hillary Clinton will ... [p]artner with rail companies in aggressively repairing track defects that cause derailments and evaluate whether shale oil presents unique explosion risks.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate is indeterminate.

Re-entry Assistance for Ex-Offenders: “She will ... [i]nvest $5 billion in reentry programs for formerly incarcerated people—so that those who have made mistakes in the past have a fair shot at getting back on their feet.” (source)

Cost per Year: $500 million ($5 billion over ten years)

Notes: This is part of Clinton’s Economic Revitalization Plan. NTUF assumes this funding would be spread over ten years.

Small Business: “I also want to make sure small businesses can start and grow again.” (December 19, 2015 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Clinton has laid a number of tax and regulatory proposals related to small business. An outlay estimate is indeterminate.

Small Business - Export Promotion: “Encourage small business exports by expanding [Small Business Administration] funding for export development, establishing a single global export strategy across agencies, and creating a user-friendly export planning portal for small businesses.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The Small Business Administration manages two export programs: International Trade Promotion (funded at $9 million in FY 2016) and the State Trade Expansion Program (funded at $20 million in FY 2016). Clinton has not specified how much she would expand funding for the programs.

Small Business - Licensing: “ … Hillary will launch a national initiative to break down unnecessary barriers to starting a company by [p]ushing state and local governments to make starting a business easier: Any state and locality willing to make starting a business cheaper and easier and meaningfully streamline unnecessary licensing programs will receive federal funding to support innovative programs and offset forgone licensing revenue. These funds will only be available for proposals that also safeguard public health and safety.” (source)

            Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Clinton has not specified the level of federal funding that would be required to support this program.

Small Business - Responding to Questions: “Guarantee a 24-hour response time to small businesses with questions about federal regulations and access to capital programs.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear whether additional administrative or staff funding would be required to implement this policy.

Small Business - Small Business Investment Company: “Expand and streamline the [Small Business Administration’s] Small Business Investment Company program … .” (source)

            Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The Small Business Investment Company spent $17 million in FY 2016 to support debentures and loans. Clinton has not specified how she would expand the program.

Trade Enforcement: “Establish and empower a new chief trade prosecutor reporting directly to the president, triple the number of trade enforcement officers, stand up to Chinese abuses, and crack down on currency manipulation ... .” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate is uncertain. According to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, there are 23 other federal trade agencies. It is unclear exactly which “trade enforcement officers” would be tripled in number. The campaign was contacted for clarification.

Transportation: “ ... Hillary Clinton will ... [w]ork with Congress to … increase investment in transportation solutions that expand transit access and reduce commute times, oil consumption, and pollution.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear how much of an increase in transportation funding Clinton would support.

Underserved Communities: “She will ... [i]nvest $25 billion to support entrepreneurship and small business growth in underserved communities ... .” (source)

Cost per Year: $2.5 billion ($25 billion over ten years)

Notes: This is part of Clinton’s Economic Revitalization Plan. NTUF assumes this funding would be spread over ten years.

Wall Street Regulation: “I’ve got a comprehensive, tough plan [to regulate Wall Street]. But I went further than that. We have to go after what’s called the shadow banking industry, those hedge funds.” (November 14 Debate)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear whether Clinton’s proposal to increase the government’s regulatory authority over the financial and commodity industries would increase costs to the government. In 2011, the Congressional Budget Office reported that Dodd-Frank would increase outlays by $21.5 billion over five years.

Youth Employment: “[Clinton] will ... [i]nvest $20 billion to support millions of youth jobs—providing direct federal funding for local programs that will put our kids to work.” (source)

Cost per Year: $2 billion ($20 billion over ten years)

Notes: This is part of Clinton’s Economic Revitalization Plan. NTUF assumes this funding would be spread over ten years.

 

Education, Science, & Research:

Adult English Language Education and Citizenship Education: “As president, Hillary will ... [s]ignificantly increase federal resources for adult English language education and citizenship education.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Clinton has not specified a funding level. FY 2016 federal funding totaled $582 million for Adult Basic and Literacy Education State Grants and $14 million for English Literacy and Civics Education State Grants.

AmeriCorps: “Tripl[e] the size of AmeriCorps.”  (source)

Cost per Year: $102 million* ($1.016 billion over ten years)*

Notes: In FY 2016, AmeriCorps was budgeted $508 million. NTUF assumes that the program would be tripled over ten years.

* This item is included in the total cost of Clinton's New College Compact, below, and is not double counted.

Bilingual Education: “Ensure adequate resources for ... bilingual education. ... Recognizing the value of bilingualism to student learning, Hillary will ... promote bilingual education. New York, along with California and Illinois, have led the way by increasing bilingual educational programs and by providing a State Seal of Biliteracy on high school diplomas; many more states have followed. Hillary will support states and districts that make these commitments.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear whether Clinton would “support” these states using additional federal grants or matching funds.

Child Care on Campus: “As president, Clinton will … Increase access to child care on college campuses by serving an additional 250,000 children. Clinton’s New College Compact will dramatically increase access to child care on campus by increasing funding for the Child Care Access Means Parents in School Program ... from $15 million to $250 million per year.” (source)

Cost per Year: $235 million ($1.175 billion over five years)*

Notes: NTUF assumes this would be increased in the first-year.

*The cost for this item is included Clinton’s Tuition-Free College plan (below).

Computer Science (CS): “Hillary will [i]Invest in [c]omputer [s]cience and STEM [e]ducation by … [p]roviding [e]very [s]tudent in America an [o]pportunity to [l]earn [c]omputer [s]cience[.] To build on the President Obama’s ‘Computer Science Education for All’ initiative [sic], Hillary will launch the next generation of Investing in Innovation (‘i3’) grants, double investment in the program, and establish a 50% set-aside for CS Education.” (source)

Cost per Year: $60 million ($120 million over two years)

Notes: The Investing in Innovation program was renamed as the Education Innovation and Research Program. The program received $120 million in FY 2016, and the Administration proposes to raise it by $60 million in FY 2017. NTUF assumes Clinton would support that level of funding and double the program over two years.

Discipline Policy Reform: “Hillary will work to dismantle the school-to-prison pipeline by providing $2 billion in support to schools to reform overly punitive disciplinary policies, calling on states to reform school disturbance laws, and encouraging states to use federal education funding to implement social and emotional support interventions.” (source)

Cost per Year: $200 million ($2 billion over ten years)

Notes: NTUF assumes the funding would be spread over ten years.

Early Childhood Educators: “To increase the quality of child care in America and pay child care workers for the true value of their worth, Clinton will create the Respect And Increased Salaries for Early Childhood Educators (RAISE) initiative.  ... RAISE will fund and support states and local communities that work to increase the compensation of child care providers and early educators, and provide equity with Kindergarten teachers by investing in educational opportunities, career ladders, and professional salaries.” (source)

                Cost per Year: Indeterminate

                Notes: A cost estimate is unavailable.

Early Head Start and Early Head Start–Child Care: “Hillary has called for doubling our investment in Early Head Start and Early Head Start–Child Care programs … .” (source)

Cost per Year: $127 million ($635 million over five years)

Notes: The 2016 Consolidated Appropriations Act (H.R. 2029) provided $635 million for Early Head Start for FY 2016. NTUF assumes that Clinton would double this funding over five years.

English Language Learners: “Ensure adequate resources for English Language Learners (ELLs) ... . ... As president, Hillary will provide opportunities to improve outcomes for ELLs by helping states enact the requirements of the Every Student Succeeds Act to track the progress schools are making in helping ELLs gain proficiency. She will fight for the funding needed to make this progress.” (sources)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The Every Student Succeeds Act, S. 1177, was enacted in December, 2015. According to the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate, the law would provide $2.68 billion for Language Instruction for Limited English Proficient and Immigrant Students. It is unclear whether Clinton considers this amount as “adequate resources” or is calling for additional spending.

In-state Tuition for Illegal Immigrants: “ ... [W]e want more states to [offer in-state tuition to undocumented immigrants].” (October 13, 2015 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear whether Clinton is advocating that the federal government provide benefits to pay for in-state tuition. In 2010, the Congressional Budget Office determined that the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors Act, which would grant conditional nonimmigrant status to certain individuals to attend post-secondary schools, would have increased entitlement spending by $134 million over five years.

Physical Restraints and Seclusion Prevention: “Clinton will … [e]nact the Keeping All Students Safe Act … .” (source)

Cost per Year: $51 million ($254 million over five years)

Notes: The Keeping All Students Safe Act was introduced in Congress as H.R. 927. The proposal would provide grants for states to implement training programs in order to prevent and reduce the use of physical restraint and seclusion in schools. The text of the bill would authorize “such sums as necessary” for the grant funding. A previous, identical version of the bill was introduced in the 111th Congress as H.R. 1427. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the grants would cost $254 million over the first five years of implementation.

Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM): “Hillary’s Department of Education will support states and districts in developing innovative schools that prioritize STEM, implementing ’makerspaces,’ and building public-private partnerships.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear whether the states would receive support in the form of additional federal grants or matching funds.

Scientific Research: “Hillary will grow the research and development budgets of entities like the National Science Foundation, the Department of Energy, and [Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency] … . She will also devote more resources to technology transfer, so we get ideas to market.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The FY 2016 budget authorized a total of $147.5 billion for research and development, including $6.1 billion for the National Science Foundation, $14.4 billion for the Department of Energy, and $2.9 billion for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. Clinton has not specified a spending level for these programs in her plan. In the 2008 election campaign, she called to increase funding for the National Science Foundation and related science agencies by 50 percent over 10 years. NTUF scored that as a $6.5 billion increase over five years.

Student Loans: “First, all the 40 million Americans who currently have student debt will be able to refinance their debt to a low interest rate.” (October 13, 2015 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: $19.333 billion ($58 billion over three years)*

Notes: Related legislation was introduced in the 113th Congress as S. 2432, the Bank on Students Emergency Loan Refinancing Act. CBO most recently scored the bill as a $58 billion cost over three years.

*The cost for this item is included Clinton’s Tuition-Free College plan (below).

Teacher Recruitment Campaign: “Launch a national campaign to modernize and elevate the profession of teaching. Hillary will fight for strong public schools in every zip code ... . ... Hillary will launch a national campaign to recruit the next generation of talented educators, prepare and support them to excel in the classroom, and pay them a wage that reflects the true value of their work.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: NTUF assumes that this national teacher recruitment campaign is distinct from Clinton’s Respect And Increased Salaries for Early Childhood Educators initiative. A cost estimate is indeterminate.

Teachers - Computer Science (CS): “Hillary will launch an initiative to expand the pool of computer science teachers—both through recruiting new teachers into the field, and through helping current teachers gain additional training—so that we train an additional 50,000 CS teachers in the next ten years. To deliver on this goal, Hillary will commit federal financial aid, assistance to professional development programs, and support for public-private partnerships. She’ll work to improve CS Education certification pathways, and to broaden ongoing learning opportunities for CS teachers so they can remain up to date on the cutting edge developments in the field.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate is unavailable for this proposal.

Tuition-Free College: “I also believe in affordable college … . What I want to do is make sure middle class kids ... get to be able to afford college.” (January 17, 2016 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: $50 billion ($500 billion over ten years)

Notes: Clinton’s plan, dubbed “The New College Compact,” includes a number of provisions designed to lower the cost of tuition at public colleges and universities. They include federal grants to states that reduce tuition; student loan refinancing provisions (similar to legislation introduced by Senator Elizabeth Warren); the President’s $6 billion per year plan to make community colleges “free”; and permanently extending the refundable American Opportunity Tax Credit. Her campaign has stated that the plan would cost “in the range of” $350 billion over ten years, and would be offset by “limiting certain tax expenditures for high-income taxpayers” (though it does not mention any specifically). A five-year estimate is currently unavailable.

In July, 2016, Clinton revised and expanded the plan to provide tuition-free education for students from families earning up to $85,000. The income ceiling would increase by $10,000 each year over the next four years, and would be capped at $125,000 in 2021.

In addition, Clinton calls to:

• Restore year-round Pell Grant funding. While the program was eliminated in 2011, President Obama proposed to restore it in his FY 2017 budget at a cost of $2.635 billion over ten years.
• Defer federal loan payments and interest for three years for certain individuals who start a “business or social enterprise.”
• Expand loan forgiveness programs for public service. Those eligible would include AmeriCorps’ paid-volunteers and teachers who serve in high-need areas. At a six-year cost of $1.679 billion, Obama’s FY 2017 budget proposes to consolidate existing teacher loan forgiveness programs and to expand loan forgiveness for teachers who serve in low-income schools beginning in 2021. However, a cost estimate is indeterminate for Clinton’s proposal.
• Use executive authority to implement a 3-month moratorium on federal student loan payments. During this period, individuals would be encouraged to refinance their existing loans.

In August, 2016, an unnamed Clinton campaign staffer told the Washington Post that the plan would increase the cost of the Compact by $10 billion a year. NTUF believed this was likely a low estimate given the number of students that would be covered and the potential for an increase in demand for “free” education at public institutions. While a projection of that is unavailable, we do now that in 2015, about 14.8 million students were enrolled in public colleges and the national average annual cost for public, four-year, in-state tuition (including fees, room, and board) was $9,410 – ranging from $7,083 in the south to $12,007 in New England.

In September, the Clinton campaign revised its cost estimate for the program to “in the range of $500 billion over ten years.”

Universal Preschool for Four-year-olds: “ ... Hillary Clinton called for universal preschool for all of America’s children. ... Her proposal would work to ensure that every 4-year old in America has access to high-quality preschool in the next 10 years. It would do so by providing new federal funding for states that expand access to quality preschool for all four-year olds. This effort would build upon President Obama’s Preschool for All proposal.” (source)

Cost per Year: $6.604 billion ($66.042 billion over ten years)

Notes: The Obama Administration's FY 2017 budget included a proposal to establish a Preschool for All program with an estimated cost of $66.042 billion over ten years.

 

Energy and the Environment:

Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E): “ ... Hillary Clinton will ... [e]xpand successful innovation initiatives, like ARPA-e, and cut those that fail to deliver results.” (sourcehttps://www.hillaryclinton.com/briefing/factsheets/2015/09/23/hillary-clinton-vision-for-modernizing-energy-infrastructure/)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Funding in FY 2016 for ARPA-E totaled $291 million. It is unclear what level of increases that Clinton would support.

Biorefinery Assistance: “ … Clinton will … [s]upport the bio-based economy's dynamic growth by doubling the loan guarantees made through the Biorefinery, Renewable Chemical, and Biobased Product Manufacturing Assistance Program.” (source)

Cost per Year: $9 million ($45 million over five years)

Notes: The Biorefinery Assistance Program had a $45 million loan guarantee subsidy authorization in the FY 2016 budget. NTUF assumes that Clinton would double the loan guarantees over five years.

Brownfield Clean-up and Redevelopment: “Clinton will work to replenish the federal Superfund, partner with state and local governments in pushing responsible parties to pay their fair share of clean-up costs, and collaborate with local leaders to redevelop brownfields in a way that creates good-paying jobs and new economic opportunities for impacted communities. To protect the health and safety of local residents, workers will be trained by accredited organizations. To help create long-term career paths, contractors working on these projects will be required to participate in registered apprenticeship programs and newcomers to the workforce will be encouraged to join these programs.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate is indeterminate.

Clean Energy Challenge Grants: “I’ve put forward specific plans about how we’re going to create more good-paying jobs: by investing in ... clean energy ... .” (October 13, 2015 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: $6 billion ($60 billion over ten years)

Notes: Clinton has proposed to enact a Clean Energy Challenge grant program funded at $60 billion over ten years.

Clean Energy Research & Development: “ ... Hillary Clinton will ... [i]ncrease public investment in clean energy R&D, including in storage technology, designed materials, advanced nuclear, and carbon capture and sequestration.” (source)

Cost per Year: $1.28 billion ($6.4 billion over five years)

Notes: A related proposal included in the Obama Administration’s FY 2017 budget would double federal spending on clean energy R&D over five years, including funding for conversion and storage, nuclear power and for carbon capture and storage.

Conservation: “Hillary now As president, Hillary will ... [p]rotect wildlife in the United States by ... making more resources available to farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners who are taking steps to conserve our wildlife, lands, and waters.” (source)

“ ... Clinton will increase both the availability and accessibility of funding to incentivize voluntary private conservation. ... Clinton will work to fully fund the Environmental Quality Incentives Program and ask the Secretary of Agriculture to establish a one stop shop’ to help farmers and ranchers identify programs that may provide financial support for their conservation practices, including securing additional access for hunters and anglers.” (source)

Cost per Year: $321 million (First-year cost)

Notes: A group of Democratic Senators and lobby organizations are calling to “fully fund” the Environmental Quality Incentives Program at $1.65 billion in FY 2017. This would be a $321 million increase from the amount appropriated for FY 2016.

The Congressional Research Service’s 2015 report “Agricultural Conservation: A Guide to Programs" lists 19 existing conservation programs administered by the Natural Resources Conservation Service or the Farm Service Agency. Total funding for these programs amounted to over $5.8 billion in 2015. It is unclear what additional resources Clinton would make available.

Conservation - Water Innovation Lab: “As President, Clinton will create a national Water Innovation Lab to develop cutting edge efficiency, treatment and reuse solutions.” (source)

Cost: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate for the Water Innovation Lab is indeterminate. Clinton also noted, “The United States has 17 national labs that work on energy, but not one that is focused exclusively on water.” The 17 energy labs received a total of $12.6 million in federal funding in FY 2016 ($742 thousand per lab on average).

Conservation - WaterSMART: “Clinton will also more than triple the current investment in the Bureau of Reclamation’s primary water conservation grant program, called WaterSMART, to $100 million per year to support infrastructure modernization and environmental restoration projects that can save water.” (source)

Cost per Year: $80 million (First-year cost)

Notes: This would increase spending by $80 million above the $20 million funding level for WaterSMART in FY 2016.

Conservation - Western Water Partnership: “Clinton will ... [i]ncrease federal investment in water conservation through a coordinated, multi-agency Western Water Partnership. One of the most important ways the federal government can help avoid shortage conditions on the Colorado River and in other drought-afflicted watersheds in the West is to increase its investment in water conservation initiatives. To that end, Clinton will launch a coordinated strategy to help fund locally-led water efficiency, conservation, and infrastructure modernization projects across the region.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear how this new partnership would be funded.

Conservation - Wildfire Funding: “Clinton will also work to reform the wildfire budget to ensure that firefighters, states, and communities have the resources they need to fight fires every year, and to end the damaging practice of transferring resources away from initiatives that help reduce fire risk and restore the health of forests.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The United States Department of Agriculture’s budget notes that for the first time in its history, “the Forest Service is spending more than 50 percent of its budget to suppress the Nation’s wildfires.” According to the Congressional Research Service, Congress provided a total of $8.6 billion through regular appropriations from FY 2006 through FY 2015 for wildfire suppression. For seven of those ten years, Congress also provided supplemental funding for an additional $4.2 billion.

Conservation - Wildlife Grants: “To further stimulate the voluntary conservation of declining and at-risk wildlife – before they reach the brink of extinction - Clinton will also propose to nearly double the State and Tribal Wildlife Grants program to $100 million per year.” (source)

Cost per Year: $39 million (First-year cost)

Notes: This would increase spending by $39 million above the $61 million funding level for State and Tribal Wildlife Grants in FY 2016.

Electric Grid – Cybersecurity: “ ... Hillary Clinton will ... [i]mplement a cybersecurity strategy that integrates and protects the expanded use of distributed energy resources and other cutting-edge clean energy technologies.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate is indeterminate.

Electric Grid - Cybersecurity - State and Local: “ ... Hillary Clinton will ... [p]rovide new tools and resources to states, cities and rural communities to make the investments necessary to improve grid resilience to both cyber-attack and extreme weather events.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The Department of Energy’s Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability Office (with an FY 2016 budget of $206 million) supports several programs related to the security and resiliency of the electric grid. It is unclear what “new resources” Clinton would provide to states.

Electric Grid - Integration of Distributed Energy: “ ... Hillary Clinton will ... [o]ffer financing tools for grid investments that support the integration of distributed energy resources and for gas pipeline investments that enable households and businesses to switch away from heating oil and other petroleum products.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The Department of Energy’s Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability Office (with an FY 2016 budget of $206 million) supports several programs related to grid integration of distributed energy sources. It is unclear what additional “financial tools” Clinton would provide.

Electric Grid - Presidential Threat Assessment and Response Team: “ ... Hillary Clinton will ... [c]reate a Presidential Threat Assessment and Response Team to improve coordination across federal agencies and strengthen collaboration with state and local officials and the electric power industry in assessing and addressing cybersecurity threats. (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate is indeterminate.

Energy Leasing on Public Land: “ ... Clinton will expand energy production on public lands and waters ten-fold within ten years of taking office, while reforming federal fossil fuel leasing.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Clinton has indicated she supports ending extraction of oil and gas from federal lands. In 2014, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that from 2014 to 2023 the federal government would receive $127 billion in proceeds from oil and gas leases on federal land. These proceeds are scored in the budget as offsetting receipts, or negative spending. Banning extraction would reduce offsetting receipts as existing leases expire. A cost estimate is indeterminate. Increasing the production of renewable energy on public lands could reduce revenues to do expanded use of the federal Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit.

Environmental Justice: “Clinton will work with Congress to update our environmental, public health, and safety laws by enhancing the criminal provisions of the Safe Drinking Water Act, adding criminal provisions to the Lead Disclosure Rule, improving the lead inspection standards of the Renovation, Repair and Painting Rule, and increasing the penalties for violations of the Mine Safety and Health Act and the Occupational Safety and Health Act so that they are felonies that carry the possibility of serious jail time. Clinton will also work with Congress to ensure that victims of environmental crimes receive compensation for their injuries, direct the EPA and Justice Department to work together on using Title VI of the Civil Rights Act to prevent or rectify environmental injustices, and direct Justice Department prosecutors to be just as tough on environmental criminals as they are on other criminals who endanger our communities.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear whether there would be any administrative costs.

Farmers - Beginning Farmer and Ranchers: “ … Clinton will … [s]upport the next generation of farmers by doubling funding for the Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development program to provide education, mentoring, and technical assistance to aspiring farmers and ranchers.” (source)

Cost per Year: $4 million ($18 million over five years)

Notes: The FY 2016 budget provided $18 million for the Beginning Farmer and Development program. NTUF assumes that Clinton would double the funding over five years.

Farmers - Market Promotion: “ … Clinton will … [b]uild a strong local and regional food system by doubling funding for the Farmers Market Promotion Program and the Local Food Promotion Program … .” (source)

Cost per Year: $6 million ($28 million over five years)

Notes: The FY 2016 budget provided $28 million for the combined Farmers Market and Local Food Promotion Program. NTUF assumes Clinton will double the funding over five years.

Lead: “As President, Hillary will … [e]liminate lead as a major public health threat within five years. … Clinton will ... leverage federal, state, local, and philanthropic resources, including up to $5 billion in federal dollars, to replace lead paint, windows, and doors in homes, schools, and child care centers and remediate lead-contaminated soil.” (source)

Cost per Year: $1 billion ($5 billion over five years)

Notes: NTUF assumes this is a five-year program.

National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS): “[Hillary would significantly expand] National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences’ research and partnership grant programs.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Funding in FY 2016 for NIEHS’s research grants programs totaled $304 million. There are no partnership grant programs specified in the NIEHS Fee 2017 Budget Justification. NIEHS’s total funding in 2016 was $694 million. It is unclear how Clinton would “significantly expand” the grants.

North American Climate Compact: “As President, Clinton will immediately launch negotiations with the leaders of Canada and Mexico to secure a North American Climate Compact that includes ambitious national targets, coordinated policy approaches, and strong accountability measures to catalyze clean energy deployment, reduce energy costs, cut greenhouse gas emissions, guide infrastructure investment, and make our integrated energy and vehicle markets cleaner and more efficient.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate is indeterminate.

Parks - Access to Public Lands: “Because some public lands are surrounded by private lands, an estimated 4 million acres of national forests and other public lands in the West are currently inaccessible to the public. To confront this problem, Clinton will set a goal of unlocking access to at least 2 million acres of currently inaccessible public lands by the end of her first term – halving the amount of public land that is currently off-limits – by pursuing voluntary conservation partnerships with private landowners and state governments to establish new access points, trails, and easements to open public access to public lands.”(source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Clinton has not specified a funding level or timeline for the “voluntary conservation partnerships” to open access to public lands.

Parks - American Parks Trust Fund: “Clinton will work with Congress to establish a new [American Parks Trust Fund] with the mission of helping to expand local, state, and national recreation opportunities, rehabilitate existing parks, and enhancing America’s great outdoors – from our forests and coasts to neighborhood parks. This trust fund will replace, expand the scope of, and provide funding at roughly double the authorized level of the Land and Water Conservation Fund to address infrastructure needs, reduce the maintenance backlog in national parks, forests, and public lands and more.” (source)

Cost per Year: $450 million (First-year cost)

Notes: The Land and Water Conservation Fund was appropriated $450 million in FY 2016.

Parks - City Parks: “As President, Hillary Clinton will launch an initiative to restore and revitalize more than 3,000 city parks within ten years, including by providing new national service opportunities for youth, veterans, and others. She will do this by restoring, updating, and investing $40 million annually in the Urban Parks and Recreation Recovery Program and $10 million annually in AmeriCorps to create and support opportunities for Americans to get involved directly in revitalizing open spaces and recreational sites in their communities.” (source)

Cost per Year: $25 million ($125 million over five years)

Notes: This proposal would increase outlays by $25 million annually above the FY 2016 appropriation of $25 million for the Urban Parks and Recreation Recovery Program.

Parks - Historical Sites: “Clinton will work to protect historic sites and cherished lands that should be added to our system of parks and public lands and waters to better reflect the diversity of our peoples and cultures.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear what steps Clinton would take to protect historic sites. The budget for the federal Historic Preservation Fund for FY 2016 was $65 million.

 

Government Reform:

Campaign Finance – Public Funding for Congressional Elections: “Hillary will establish a small-donor matching system for… congressional elections to incentivize small donors to participate in elections, and encourage candidates to spend more time engaging a representative cross-section of voters.” (source)

           Cost per Year: $850 million (first-year cost)

Notes: In 2013, Public Campaign estimated that related legislation introduced to establish public financing of Presidential elections would cost from $700 to $850 million per year. NTUF assumes this would be the cost during an election year.

Campaign Finance – Public Funding for Presidential Elections: “Hillary will establish a small-donor matching system for presidential ... elections to incentivize small donors to participate in elections, and encourage candidates to spend more time engaging a representative cross-section of voters.” (source)

           Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The existing Presidential Election Campaign Fund matches certain qualifying contributions to Presidential campaigns. It is unclear what additional reforms Clinton would implement regarding Presidential elections.

Cybersecurity: “[Clinton] supports expanded investment in cybersecurity technologies, as well as public-private collaboration on cybersecurity innovation, responsible information sharing on cyber threats, and accelerated adoption of best practices such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology Cybersecurity Framework. To ensure a coherent strategy across federal agencies, she will build on the Obama Administration’s Cybersecurity National Action Plan, especially the empowerment of a federal Chief Information Security Officer, the modernization of federal IT, and upgrades to government-wide cybersecurity.” (source)

Cost per Year: $5 billion (First-year cost)

Note: The Administration’s Cybersecurity National Action Plan calls to spend $19 billion in FY 2017 on cybersecurity, a $5 billion increase above FY 2016. NTUF assumes that Clinton would support this increase in funding proposal.

Federal Programs: Review & Streamline: “I want to streamline programs that are duplicative and redundant. I want to have a top-to-bottom review about what works and what doesn’t work, and be absolutely clear we’re getting rid of what doesn’t work.” (February 4, 2016 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: There are insufficient details to determine an estimate of possible savings. An organization called Results for America that promotes “evidence-based, results-driven practices, policies, and programs” has an overview of the Bush and Obama administrations’ efforts regarding program assessments (see the Appendix).

Government Reform: “[Clinton] will direct the members of her Cabinet to increase the number of federal employees that identify and implement new ideas from citizens and businesses to help government serve the country more effectively.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear whether this policy would entail hiring new federal employees or re-tasking current staff.

Tax Fairness & Middle Class Tax Cuts: “And then we have to figure out how we’re going to make the tax system a fairer one. Right now, the wealthy pay too little and the middle class pays too much. So I have specific recommendations about how we’re going to close those loopholes, make it clear that the wealthy will have to pay their fair share, and have a series of tax cuts for middle-class families.” (October 13, 2015 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: This proposal will increase spending to the extent that Clinton’s “tax cuts for middle-class families” include “refundable” credits in addition to the education proposal that she also cited the debate.

Voting Rights: “There’s a lot we have to do on … voting rights … .” (January 17, 2016 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Clinton proposes reforms to “repair the Voting Rights Act,” “set national standards for early voting,” and implement “universal, automatic voter registration.” A cost estimate is indeterminate.

 

Health Care:

Alzheimer’s Disease Research: “Invest $2 billion per year in research for Alzheimer’s and related disorders. ... This past year, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) invested $586 million in Alzheimer’s research, less than 1 percent of the annual cost of this disease. As part of a new investment in NIH, Hillary would rapidly ramp up our investment to $2 billion.” (source)

Cost per Year: $1.414 billion ($7.07 billion over five years)

Notes: The cost represents the net increase over current funding levels.

Autism Protection and Advocacy: “Dedicate new funding to autism protection and advocacy. As she proposed in her 2007 bipartisan legislative proposal, the Expanding the Promise for Individuals with Autism Act, Clinton will push for authorization and funding for an autism protection and advocacy program, creating a dedicated funding stream for federally-funded protection and advocacy agencies to protect the rights of individuals on the autism spectrum. These efforts would mirror the Protection and Advocacy for Individuals with Mental Illness (PAIMI) and Protection and Advocacy for Developmental Disability (PADD) programs.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: In FY 2016, the federal budget provided $36 million for Protection and Advocacy for Individuals with Mental Illness and $39 million for Protection and Advocacy for Developmental Disability. Clinton has not specified what level of new funding she would “dedicate … to autism protection and advocacy.”

Autism Research: “Clinton will … [s]ignificantly increase funding so that the government can invest more in autism research.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: In FY 2016, the federal government spent an estimated $216 million on autism research. Clinton has not specified what level of funding she would support.

Autism Screening and Outreach: “As president, Clinton will ... [c]onduct a nationwide early screening outreach campaign to ensure that all children, and in particular children from underserved backgrounds, can get screened for autism. As president, Clinton will … Push states to require health insurance coverage for autism services in private insurance plans as well as marketplace plans offered in the state so that people with autism are not turned away. …  Clinton will direct the Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to provide clear information to physicians and parents so that they know that all Marketplace health plans must cover autism screening at 18 and 24 months. … And she will direct CMS to provide technical assistance to states to improve access for children to covered autism services, including behavioral and developmental services, assistive technology, and home and community-based services.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The FY 2016 budget included $47 million for the Autism Education, Early Detection and Intervention program. A cost estimate for Clinton’s proposal is indeterminate.

Autism Works Initiative: “As president, Clinton will … Launch the Autism Works Initiative to extend new resources and establish public-private partnerships that will connect people with autism with employment opportunities.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Clinton has not specified a funding level for the new Initiative.

Brain and Behavioral Science Research: “As President, Hillary will ... [s]ignificantly increase research into brain and behavioral science research. As part of a broad new investment in medical research, Hillary will provide new funding for the National Institutes of Health; build on cross-collaborative basic research efforts like the BRAIN initiative; scale up critical investments in clinical, behavioral, and services research; and integrate research portfolios with pioneering work on conditions like PTSD and traumatic brain injury already underway at DoD, the VA, and HHS.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: In 2014, the Obama Administration initiated a $100 million Brain Research Initiative. As Clinton notes, funding for research in this area is provided through multiple federal agencies and grant programs. She has not specified a funding level for the new research.

Care Workers Initiative: “As president, Clinton will … [l]aunch a Care Workers Initiative to create a coordinated, government-wide initiative to address the challenges faced by care workers—by developing strategies to improve opportunities for care workers to earn the skills they need; creating paths to professionalize the workforce through career ladders and apprenticeships; improving the rate-setting processes in the child care and health care systems to ensure fair wages; providing care workers with an opportunity to come together and make their voices heard in support of a stronger system; and by developing and enhancing matching services to connect care workers to the families who need them.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Clinton has not specified a funding level for the new Initiative.

Community Health Centers: “As president, Clinton will double funding for primary care services at Federally Qualified Health Centers which deliver community-based care serving populations with limited access to health care. This means extending the current mandatory funding that was significantly expanded under the Affordable Care Act and expanding this funding by $40 billion over the next ten years.” (source)

Cost per Year: $4 billion ($40 billion over ten years)

Developmental Disabilities: “Provide new support to caregivers. Clinton will provide new funds through the Developmental Disabilities Act to expand support for family members and other caregivers providing long-term care for those with autism and other disabilities.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Development Disabilities Act programs were funded at $161 million in FY 2016. Clinton has not specified the level of “new funds” she would support to expand these programs.

Disability Integration: “As President, I will continue to advance disability rights and work to fulfill the promise of the [Americans with Disabilities Act]. I will work to expand support for people to live in integrated community settings, consistent with the Supreme Court’s Olmstead decision. As part of that effort, I will push Congress to enact the Disability Integration Act so that Americans with disabilities who need long-term services and supports can receive that care in home- and community-based settings if they so choose.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate is indeterminate.

Drug Abuse & Addiction: “So I have ... come out with a comprehensive approach [regarding drug abuse and addiction] that, number one, does tell the states that we will work with you from the federal government putting more money, about a billion dollars a year, to help states have a different approach to dealing with this epidemic.” (January 17, 2016 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: $1 billion ($5 billion over five years)

Notes: Clinton proposes a $10 billion plan to “combat … drug and alcohol addiction.” NTUF assumes the funding would be spread over 10 years.

Drug Prices: “I also am very committed to getting the price of drugs down.” (December 19, 2015 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: -$9.104 billion (-$45.52 billion over five years)

Notes: PARTIAL ESTIMATE. Clinton has specified a number of  measures related to prescription drugs, including removing a tax write-off for expenses related to direct-to-consumer advertising, increasing regulation of advertisements, “fully funding” the Office of Generic Drugs, decreasing the exclusivity period for generic biological drugs, and “build[ing] on  provisions in the Affordable Care Act that invest in private research.” While the cost of these and additional elements of her plan are indeterminate, she has also has proposed to “require pharmaceutical companies to provide higher rebates in the Medicare low-income subsidy program, ensuring that rebates are at Medicaid levels.” The “rebates” are an increase in forced payments from pharmaceutical manufacturers to participate in the Medicare Part D program. President Obama’s FY 2016 budget included a similar proposal to “align Medicare drug payment policies with Medicaid policies” that increase offsetting receipts by $45.5 billion over five years. The Congressional Budget Office notes that the rebates might cause manufacturers to reduce investment in research and development of new drugs. CBO also expects that new drugs would be released at higher prices to offset the increased “rebates”.

Enrollment Campaign: “Hillary will ensure anyone who wants to enroll can understand their options and do so easily. She will invest $500 million per year in an aggressive enrollment campaign to ensure more people enroll in these affordable options.” (source)

Cost per Year: $500 million ($2.5 billion over five years)

Health Insurance Premium Subsidies for Illegal Immigrants: “I want to open up the opportunity for immigrants to be able to buy in to the exchanges under the Affordable Care Act. I think to go beyond that, as I understand what Governor O’Malley has recommended, so that they would get the same subsidies.” (October 13, 2015 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: $3.38 billion ($16.9 billion over five years)

Notes: The Congressional Budget Office estimates that there are approximately 8 million illegal immigrants that are not currently covered by the Affordable Care Act. Legislation in the 113th Congress would have provided them with federal benefits and open the path for increased immigration. CBO’s estimate for the reported version S. 744 (113th Congress) finds that extending the health insurance premium subsidy would cost $16.9 billion over the next five years.

HIV/AIDS - National Campaign: “… [A]s president, Clinton will launch a campaign to end the stigma and discrimination associated with HIV and AIDS, including by … [w]orking to reform outdated HIV criminalization laws and aggressively enforce the Americans with Disabilities Act … [and] [p]artner [sic] with advocacy groups and community organizations to conduct public education.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate is indeterminate for the national campaign.

HIV/AIDS - Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP] Grants: “The [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)]  has funded grants to state and local health departments to increase knowledge about and uptake of PrEP. Clinton will increase the CDC’s investment to ensure populations at greatest risk of infection have access to preventive medicines.” (source)

Cost per Year: $20 million (First-year cost)

Notes: The CDC has recently provided $191 million for PrEP grants to be spent over the next three to four years. The CDC requested an increase of $20 million in FY 2017 for a “new demonstration project to increase availability and improve utilization of pre-exposure prophylaxis ... in high-burden communities … .” NTUF assumes Clinton would support this increase.

HIV/AIDS - Research: “As president, [Hillary] will ... [i]nvest in research to end HIV and AIDS. ...  Hillary will support robust investments to ensure this progress continues ... .” (source)

           Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: In FY 2016, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention funding for Domestic HIV/AIDS Prevention and Research totaled $789 million. It is unclear from her statement what level of increases she would support.

Medicaid Expansion: “As president, Hillary will … [f]ight for health insurance for the lowest-income Americans in every state by incentivizing states to expand Medicaid—and make enrollment through Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act easier.” (source)

Cost per Year: $2.9 billion ($14.5 billion over five years)

Notes: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) required states to expand eligibility for Medicaid enrollment with the federal government. After a landmark Supreme Court ruling in 2012 striking down the federal mandate, states had the option on whether or not to increase their programs. Currently, only 21 states have taken action to increase their health care programs. Expansion states received a 100 percent federal matching rate for newly eligible Medicaid enrollees, though over time, the federal match will decline. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts that the cost of the ACA’s expansion of Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program will total $969 billion from FY 2017 through  FY 2026.

Clinton’s proposal is similar to President Obama’s FY 2017 budget proposal to further expand Medicaid:

As of January 2016, 30 states and the District of Columbia have elected to expand Medicaid, and more states are actively discussing expansion (Louisiana will make the 31st state). Through November 2015, an additional 14.1 million individuals have gained Medicaid or CHIP coverage, many of whom would not have been eligible absent Medicaid expansion.

The Budget includes a proposal ... which provides all states, regardless of when they choose to expand Medicaid, the same federal share as states that expanded right away by providing 3 years of full Federal funding for newly eligible adults.

The Administration estimates this would increase outlays by $2.61 billion from FY 2017 through 2023. The CBO’s analysis of the President’s budget assumes a higher Medicaid enrollment rate over a longer period of time under this policy proposal, costing $14.5 billion over five years and $30.7 billion over ten years. Given the level of outlays projected for Medicaid under the ACA’s current expansion, NTUF assumes that the funding level in CBO’s estimate of the cost of the new expansion is more likely to result under this proposed expansion than the Administration’s estimate.

Medicare – Early Buy-in Option: “Hillary will pursue efforts ... to expand Medicare by allowing people 55 years or older to opt in.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: In general, individuals aged 65 and older are eligible for Medicare. This proposal would provide the option to voluntarily buy-in to Medicare at a younger age. President Bill Clinton proposed to establish a buy-in option in his FY 2000 budget proposal at a cost of $1.4 billion over five years (over $2 billion in current dollars). In 2008, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that a similar budget option to create a Medicare buy-in program for individuals ages 62 to 64 would increase outlays by $370 million over the first five years. A more recent cost estimate is currently unavailable.

Medicare - Prescription Drug Price Negotiation: “Well, we’re going to have to redo the way the prescription drug industry does business. For example, it is outrageous that we don’t have an opportunity for Medicare to negotiate for lower prices. ... So there’s more to my plan than just the cap. We have to go after price gouging and monopolistic practices and get Medicare the authority to negotiate.” (November 14 Debate)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A March 3, 2004 Congressional Budget Office letter to Senator Ron Wyden notes: “CBO has not estimated the effect on federal spending of authorizing the Secretary to negotiate prices for single-source drugs. The extent of any savings would depend significantly on the details of legislative language; a proposal that applied to a broader range of drugs could generate no savings or even increase federal costs. The effect on federal spending would also depend on how the Secretary would choose to exercise any new authority to negotiate prices.”

Mental Health and Addiction: “I have put forward on my -- in my plan a $12 billion federal investment. We have to invest in the local partnerships, and the best place to intervene, the best indicator of when a person is actually on the verge of killing themselves because of an addiction, is at the hospital.” (December 19, 2015 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: $1.2 billion ($12 billion over ten years)

Notes: NTUF assumes this is a ten-year program. It is unclear whether there is any overlap with her substance abuse addiction program (above).

Mental Health - Campus Suicide Prevention: “Hillary will dramatically increase funding for campus suicide prevention, investing up to $50 million per year to provide a pathway for the country’s nearly 5,000 colleges – whether private or public, two-year or four-year – to implement these frameworks on behalf of students.” (source)

Cost per Year: $50 million ($250 million over five years)

Mental Health - Certified Community Behavioral Health Clinics: “A 2014 law established a demonstration program in eight states, under which new benefits would be available to health centers certified by the federal government as Certified Community Behavioral Health Clinics (CCBHCs). To be a CCBHC, a clinic must provide a range of physical and mental health services, including emergency psychiatric care, treatment for mental health and substance use disorders, and peer support. In return, the clinic can receive reimbursement at rates similar to those received by federally-qualified health centers. Hillary will invest $5 billion over the next ten years to scale up this demonstration project and help bring it to every state in America.” (source)

Cost per Year: $500 million ($5 billion over ten years)

Mental Health - Community-based Housing: “Expand community-based housing opportunities for individuals with mental illness and other disabilities. ...  Public housing authorities will administer the new housing subsidies, while HUD will work with HHS and USDA as well as state mental health agencies to identify qualifying individuals. Hillary will dedicate an average of $100 million to this initiative per year over the next ten years. This funding builds on her stated commitment to expand support for community-based housing through the HUD Section 811 program, authorized by the Supportive Housing Investment Act of 2010.” (source)

Cost per Year: $100 million ($1 billion over ten years)

Mental Health - Peer Support Specialists: “Promote the use of peer support specialists. Peer support specialists have been shown to provide needed, cost-effective services for individuals with mental health conditions and addiction. Hillary will support initiatives to include peers in clinical care teams in primary care settings, mental health specialty care settings, hospitals, and Accountable Care Organizations. She will encourage all 50 states to reimburse peer services in state Medicaid programs, which 30 states do currently ... .” (source)

Cost per Year: $10 million ($50 million over five years) (Partial estimate)

Notes: Related legislation has been introduced in the form of H.R. 5330, the Peer-Support Specialist Act of 2016, which would authorize $10 million a year for grant programs that fund peer support specialist training. The $10 million would not cover the cost of reimbursing state Medicaid programs.

Mental Health - Protection and Advocacy: “Expand protection and advocacy support for people with mental health conditions. Hillary will support and expand funding for the Protection and Advocacy for Individuals with Mental Illness (PAIMI) Program to ensure advocacy services for individuals with mental health conditions.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: This program was funded at $36 million in FY 2016. It is unclear how Clinton would expand its funding.

Mental Health - Students of Color and LGBT Students: “Hillary will direct the Departments of Education and Health and Human Services to work with universities, researchers and community programs to determine how best to meet and respond to the challenges [students of color and LGBT students] face and to provide specialized counseling.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear whether this would require new federal spending.

Mental Health - Telehealth: “Promote the use of health information technology to foster coordination of care. Hillary will adjust payment systems in Medicare, Medicaid, and under the Public Health Service Act, to allow for reimbursement of tele-psychiatry and other telehealth services delivered through primary care and hospital settings.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Related legislation has been introduced as S. 2343, the Telehealth Innovation and Improvement Act of 2015. The bill would require the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation to test the effect of including telehealth services in Medicare health care delivery reform models. A cost estimate is unavailable.

National Health Service Corps: “Hillary also supports President Obama’s call for a near tripling of the size of the National Health Service Corps, which will increase funding to $810 million in 2017 and grow over time to $1.3 billion by 2027.” (source)

Cost per Year: $139 million ($696 million over five year)

Notes: The National Health Service Corps was funded at $310 million in FY 2016. Clinton’s proposal would increase outlays by $500 million in the first year, and an average of $49 million in each successive year.

Out-of-Pocket Expenses Refundable Tax Credit: “And so what I have proposed, number one, is a $5,000 tax credit to help people who have very large out-of-pocket costs be able to afford those.” (December 19, 2015 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: $9.104 billion ($45.52 billion over five years)

Notes: PARTIAL ESTIMATE. The tax credit would be refundable so that it could be claimed whether or not a tax filer has any income tax liability. This credit would be in addition to Affordable Care Act’s refundable premium tax credit, which can be claimed as advanced payments to help cover out-of-pocket costs. While her campaign has not said how much this proposal could cost, Clinton says, “This tax cut will be fully paid for by demanding rebates from drug manufacturers and asking the most fortunate to pay their fair share.” NTUF assumes the cost would be at least much as the “rebate” payments listed above.

Prescription Drugs - Importation: “Clinton would allow Americans to safely and securely import drugs for personal use from foreign nations whose safety standards are a strong as those in the United States. The FDA and other regulatory agencies would set careful standards for re-importation to ensure safety and quality for Americans.” (source)

Cost per Year:  -$540 million ($-2.7 billion over five years)

Notes: In 2007, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that a bill to permit the importation of prescription drugs, H.R. 380, the Pharmaceutical Market Access and Drug Safety Act, would have reduced federal spending for prescription drugs through Medicaid and Medicare by $5.4 billion over ten years. A recent estimate is unavailable.

Prescription Drugs - Generic Competition: “Hillary Clinton would prohibit ‘pay for delay’ agreements that allow drug manufacturers to keep generic competition off of the market.” (source)

Cost per Year: -$140 million (-$700 million over five years)

Notes: A similar proposal included in the Obama Administration’s FY 2017 budget request would, “Prohibit brand and generic drug companies from delaying the availability of new generic drugs and biologics.” The Administration estimated that this would reduce outlays by $5.53 billion over five years. The Congressional Budget Office’s analysis of the President’s proposal estimated that actual savings would be $700 million over five years.

Public Option through Health Insurance Exchanges: “Hillary will pursue efforts to give Americans in every state in the country the choice of a public-option insurance plan … .” (source)

Cost per Year: -$1 billion (-$5 billion over five years)

Notes: In 2013, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that adding a public option to the health insurance exchanges would reduce outlays by $5 billion over the first five years. A more recent estimate is currently unavailable.

Respite Care: “As a Senator, Clinton was the lead Senate sponsor of the Lifespan Respite Care Act, which was enacted. It authorizes grants that continue today to improve respite care access for family caregivers of children or adults of any age with support needs.As president, Clinton will … [b]uild on the Caregiver Respite program. …  As president, Clinton will go beyond President Obama’s Caregiver Respite budget request—investing $100 million in the initiative over 10 years.” (source)

Cost per Year: $10 million ($49 million over five years)

Notes: The Respite Care program has been funded at $3 million per year. NTUF assumes that Clinton would increase funding to $100 million over ten years.

 

Homeland Security & Law Enforcement:

Campus Sexual Assault: “Hillary will: Provide comprehensive support to survivors. Ensure fair process for all in campus disciplinary proceedings and the criminal justice system. Increase sexual violence prevention education programs that cover issues like consent and bystander intervention, not only in college, but also in secondary school.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Related legislation has been introduced in Congress as H.R. 1310 & S. 590, the Campus Accountability and Safety Act. A cost estimate is indeterminate for the new grant program or administrative costs.

Comprehensive Immigration Reform: "As president, Hillary will ... [f]ight for comprehensive immigration reform legislation with a path to full and equal citizenship.” (source)

           Cost per Year: $20.2 billion ($101 billion over five years)

Notes: On her campaign website, Clinton proposes to “fight for comprehensive immigration reform legislation with a path to full and equal citizenship.” During the 113th Congress, the Senate passed S. 744, which would have overhauled the federal immigration system by providing a path to legal status for many current illegal aliens and authorizing additional funding for border security measures. A Congressional Budget Office estimate of the bill as passed by the Senate indicated it would increase mandatory spending by $89 billion over the first five years and discretionary spending by $12 billion in that same time.

Criminal Justice Sentencing Reform: “Hillary will reform mandatory minimum sentences, including: Reducing mandatory minimum sentences for nonviolent drug offenses by cutting them in half. Applying Fair Sentencing Act of 2010 retroactively to allow current nonviolent prisoners to seek fairer sentences.” (source)

Cost per Year: -$75 million (-$376 million over five years)

Notes: Legislation to reform sentencing for nonviolent offenders has been introduced in form of S. 502, the Smarter Sentencing Act of 2015, which would reduce prison sentences for certain non-violent drug-related offenses. The Congressional Budget Office scored a previous version of the bill in 2014 and found that it would lead to a net reduction in federal spending by $376 million over five years.

Criminal Justice Sentencing Reform - Crack Cocaine: “Hillary will reform mandatory minimum sentences, including ... [e]liminating the sentencing disparity for crack and powder cocaine so that equal amounts of crack and powder cocaine carry equal sentences and applying this change retroactively.” (source)

Cost per Year: -$8 million (-$42 million over five years)

Notes: In 2010, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that S. 1789, the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010, which would have raised the quantity of crack cocaine necessary to trigger the minimum sentence, would have reduced spending by $42 million over five years. A more recent cost estimate is currently unavailable.

Guns - Close Gun Show & Online Loopholes: “I actually agree ... about the need for common sense gun safety measures.” (December 19, 2015 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: $1 million ($5 million over five years)

Notes: PARTIAL ESTIMATE. Clinton has specified a number of regulatory measures related to guns, including “closing the gun show and Internet sales loophole.” Related legislation was introduced as H.R. 2380, the Gun Show Loophole Closing Act of 2015. The bill would give the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms authority to hire up to 40 new Industry Operations Investigators to enforce the increased regulatory activities required under the Act. The salary for the new personnel would cost at least $1 million per year, excluding training and supplies.

Immigrant Community and Integration Navigator Grants: “As president, Hillary will ... [s]upport affordable integration services through $15 million in new grant funding for community navigators and similar organizations.” (source)

Cost per Year: $15 million ($75 million over five years)

Notes: NTUF assumes this would be an annual grant.

Intelligence Sharing: “We have to do the best possible job of sharing intelligence and information. That now includes the Internet … .” (December 19, 2015 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear what specific steps she would advocate. H.R. 234,, the Cyber Intelligence Sharing and Protection Act, would provide for the sharing of certain cyber threat intelligence and cyber threat information between the intelligence community and cybersecurity entities, and for other purposes. A version of the bill in the previous Congress was scored by the Congressional Budget Office at $20 million over five years.

Law Enforcement - Body-Worn Cameras: “Hillary will work to promote effective, accountable, constitutional policing, including ... p]roviding federal matching funds to make body cameras available to every police officer to increase transparency and accountability on both sides of the lens.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The Body Worn Camera Partnership Program was funded at $30 million in FY 2016. It is unclear whether or by how much Clinton would increase this program.

Law Enforcement - Collaborative Reform: “Hillary will work to promote effective, accountable, constitutional policing, including ... [d]oubling funding for the U.S. Department of Justice ‘Collaborative Reform’ program to provide technical assistance and training to agencies that undertake voluntary efforts toward transformational reform of their police departments.” (source)

Cost per Year: $10 million (first-year cost)

Notes: The Collaborative Reform program was allocated $10 million in FY 2016. The Administration’s budget proposes to double this in FY 2017.

Law Enforcement - Eliminating Racial Bias: “Acknowledging that implicit bias still exists across society—even in the best police departments—and tackle it together. Hillary will commit $1 billion in her first budget to find and fund the best training programs, support new research, and make this a national policing priority." (source)

Cost per year: $200 million ($1 billion over five years)

Notes: NTUF assumes the spending would be spread over five years.

Law Enforcement – Pattern or Practice Unit: “Hillary will work to promote effective, accountable, constitutional policing, including ... [s]trengthening the U.S. Department of Justice’s pattern or practice unit by increasing resources, working to secure subpoena power, and improving data collection for pattern or practice investigations.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The Special Litigation Section (SLS) of the Civil Rights Division is charged with reviewing and investigating allegations of a pattern or practice of police misconduct, in coordination with the U.S. Attorneys’ offices. SLS is one of 10 programs in the Civil Enforcement program area. Clinton has not specified how she would “increase resources.” FY 2016 funding for Civil Enforcement totaled $136 million.

Law Enforcement - Policing Data: “Hillary will work to promote effective, accountable, constitutional policing, including ... [c]ollecting and reporting national data on policing to inform policing strategies and provide greater transparency and accountability, including robust state and local data on issues such as crime, officer involved shootings, and deaths in custody.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The Criminal Justice Statistics Program provides national estimates on key indicators of law enforcement policy, personnel, operations, and performance. It is funded at approximately $5 million per year. A cost estimate is indeterminate for Clinton’s proposal.

Law Enforcement - Racial Profiling: “Hillary will work to promote effective, accountable, constitutional policing, including ... [s]upporting legislation to end racial profiling by federal, state, and local law enforcement officials.” (source)

Cost per Year: $5 million ($10 million over two years)

Notes: Related legislation has been introduced in the 114th Congress as H.R. 1933, the End Racial Profiling Act of 2015. The bill would authorize $10 million over two years, plus “such sums as may be necessary” for additional grant funding.

Law Enforcement - Training: “Hillary will work to promote effective, accountable, constitutional policing, including ... [m]aking new investments to support state-of-the-art law enforcement training programs at every level on issues such as implicit bias, use of force, de-escalation, community policing and problem solving, alternatives to incarceration, crisis intervention, and officer safety and wellness.” (source)

           Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Clinton has not specified the amount of increased funding.

Legal Representation for Unaccompanied Minors in Immigration Hearings: “I think now what I’ve called for is counsel for every [refugee] child so that no child has to face any kind of process without someone who speaks and advocates for that child so that the right decision hopefully can be made.” (February 11, 2016 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: $11 million ($55 million over five years)

Notes: Individuals facing immigration hearings are required to hire their own lawyers, or seek pro bono representation. According to data from Syracuse University’s Transaction Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC), in 2014 only 32 percent of unaccompanied minor immigrants were represented with legal counsel in pending cases. For the cases that were decided, 41 percent had representation.

According to a report released last October by the Migration Policy Institute, there were 55,153 pending immigration cases involving unaccompanied minor immigrants.

In 2014, the Office of Refugee Resettlement issued $9 million in grants to provide representation for 2,600 unaccompanied minors, or, $3,462 per minor.

According to the TRAC report, an average of 5,526 cases were decided from 2012 through 2014. Assuming this average continues, and that 59 percent of the cases would receive federally-funded legal counsel under Clinton’s proposal, the total annual cost would be at least $11 million. The costs could run higher to the extent that those who currently receive pro bono counsel or otherwise hire their own representation make use of federally-funded representation instead.

This estimate only pertains to cases involving unaccompanied minors. TRAC reports that as of January 2015 there were 26,342 cases involving women with children. Providing legal counsel for these cases could further increase the annual cost to taxpayers.

Office of Immigrant Affairs: “As president, Hillary will ... [c]reate a national Office of Immigrant Affairs to ensure successful immigrant and refugee integration in every community. ... In 2014, the Obama Administration announced a task force to study integration services and make recommendations for improvements. Hillary would work to implement the task force’s recommendations and create the first ever federal Office of Immigrant Affairs to ensure there is a dedicated place in the White House where integration policies and services for immigrants and refugees are managed.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate for the new Office is indeterminate. To illustrate the range of potential costs, below are the FY 2016 outlays for related Offices currently in the Executive Office of the President that serve to coordinate federal policy:

• Council on Environmental Quality and Office of Environmental Quality: $3 million
• Office of National Drug Control Policy: $21 million
• Office of Science and Technology: $6 million

Private Contract Federal Prisons: “As president, she will ... [e]nd the privatization of prisons. Hillary believes we should move way from contracting out this core responsibility of the federal government to private corporations ... .” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The Bureau of Prisons (BOP) contracts with thirteen private jails. According to BOP, the majority of inmates in private prisons “are sentenced criminal aliens who may be deported upon completion of their sentence.” Funding in FY 2016 for Contract Confinement totaled $1.016 billion. A cost estimate for moving away from private contracts is unavailable. The prison population is expected to be smaller but it is unclear whether additional BOP facilities would need to be constructed to replace the private facilities.

Refugees - Vetting and Screening: “What we have to do is put all of our resources through the Department of Homeland Security, through the State Department, through our intelligence agencies, and we have to have an increased vetting and screening.” (December 19, 2015 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate is indeterminate.

Violence Against Women: “Clinton knows it is past time to address violence against women and will offer bold plans to do so.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: In FY 2016, the Justice Department’s Office of on Violence Against Women’s funding totaled $480 million. The Office funds numerous programs including the Improving Criminal Justice Responses to Sexual Assault, Domestic Violence, Dating Violence, and Stalking Grant Program, Legal Assistance to Victims,  Enhanced Training and Services to End Abuse in Later Life, the Tribal Special Domestic Violence Criminal Jurisdiction Program, and Grants to Reduce Sexual Assault, Domestic Violence, Dating Violence, and Stalking on Campus Program. It is unclear what “bold plans” Clinton will offer in addition to the existing programs and funding levels.

National Defense, International Relations, & Foreign Aid:

Basic Allowance for Housing Extension: “Clinton will … [c]reat[e] flexibility around military moves by allowing families to continue receiving their housing allowance for up to six months after a military member’s Permanent Change of Station (PCS) move under common-sense circumstances.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Note: The Basic Allowance for Housing provided to service members is based on “the member's rank, dependency status, and permanent duty station zip code.” The cost of this proposal would depend on a number of factors, including the transfer rate of service members and the cost-of-living in new areas. A cost estimate is indeterminate.

Child Care: “ … Clinton will … [i]ncrease access to child care for all service members in the Active Duty and Reserve who need it, both on- and off-base, including options for drop-in services, part-time child care, and the provision of extended-hours care, especially at Child Development Centers, while streamlining the process for re-registering children following a permanent change of station (PCS).” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The Department of Defense’s Family Assistance program provided $682 million in funding for child care services and several other support programs. Clinton has not specified what level of funding she would support to “increase access to child care for all service members … who need it.”

Defense Sequester Repeal: “As president, Hillary will … [p]rovide budgetary certainty to facilitate reforms and enable long-term planning. The recent budget deal reached between the Congress and the White House is a promising first step in providing government agencies with much needed fiscal stability. But we must go further by ending the sequester for both defense and non-defense spending in a balanced way.” (source)

Cost per Year: $13.489 billion ($53.955 billion over four years)

Notes: According to the Congressional Budget Office’s Final Sequestration Report for Fiscal Year 2016 the automatic budget reductions (known as the sequester) for Fiscal Years 2018 through 2021 are scheduled to cut non-defense spending by $35.893 billion and defense spending by $53.955 billion. Since the annual cost estimates of Clinton’s non-defense proposals included in this analysis exceed the amount of the non-defense sequester cuts, NTUF will not count that portion of the sequester as an additional spending proposal. However, since NTUF has not been able to verify cost estimates for Clinton’s proposals related to the military or active members of the Armed Services, the cost of cancelling the defense sequester will be counted as new spending.

Exceptional Family Program: “Clinton will … [e]nhance the Exceptional Family Member [e]xperience by identifying improvements in care and service member accommodations that allow service members with exceptional needs children to maintain a career progression while ensuring appropriate quality-of-life for the family.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The Exceptional Family Program was funded at $6 million in FY 2016. Clinton has not specified a funding level for the “enhanced” program.

Global Equality Fund: “As President, Clinton will increase our investment in the Global Equality Fund by $50 million over the next decade to advance the human rights of LGBT people around the world.” (source)

Cost per Year: $5 million ($50 million over ten years)

Notes: The Department of State’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor has allocated $20 million over the past two years to the Global Equality Fund.

HIV/AIDS: “As president, Hillary will increase global funding for HIV and AIDS treatment and prevention.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Clinton has not specified the level of increases. In FY 2016, the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief funding for Bilateral HIV/AIDS programs to fight AIDS globally totaled $5.217 billion.

HIV/AIDS - Global Campaign: “Clinton will work with the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria to engage in public education campaigns in key countries where stigma and discrimination are rampant.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate for the public education campaigns is indeterminate.

Islamic State: “So as I look at what the president is doing [in the Middle East and against the Islamic State], it adds up to me. We just have to keep -- try to get more support for those people on the ground in Syria and Iraq who have to actually physically take the territory back. … I am against American combat troops being in Syria and Iraq. I support Special Forces. I support trainers. I support the air campaign. And I think we’re making some progress. I want to continue to intensify that, and that’s exactly what the president is doing.” (February 11, 2016 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: A cost estimate is indeterminate. In 2014, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments estimated the cost of different campaign options against the Islamic State: higher-intensity air operations could cost up to $6.8 billion per year.

Israel: “As President, she will … [i]ncrease support for rocket and missile defense, including Iron Dome and David’s Sling, and push to expand missile defense to northern Israel … and push for push [sic] for better tunnel detection technology to better protect Israel from infiltration by terrorists and weapon. [And g]uarantee Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge to ensure the IDF is equipped to deter and defeat aggression from the full spectrum of threats … .” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The U.S. and Israel signed a 2007 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the U.S. to provide $30 billion in aid to Israel over ten years. According to DefenseNews.com, “Israel’s annual FMF under the current MoU is $3.1 billion, which is dispersed in one lump sum at the beginning of each fiscal year. Israel is required to spend all but 26.3 percent of that amount in the U.S.” Clinton has not specified by how much she would “increase support” for Israel.

Refugees - Financial Support for Europe: “So we do as the United States have to support our friends, our allies in Europe. We have to stand with them. We have to provide financial support to them [to assist with the refugee crisis]. We have to provide the NATO support to back up the mission that is going on.” (February 11, 2016 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Clinton has not specified what level of “financial support” she would provide.

Social Security:

Caregiver Credit: “[First, rather than expand benefits for everyone ...] I want to take care of women. When the Social Security program was started in the 1930s, not very many women worked. And women have been disadvantaged ever since. They do not get any credit for their care-taking responsibilities.” (February 11, 2016 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: $5.4 billion ($54.025 billion over ten years)

Notes: A Caregiver Credit would provide a new Social Security benefit for individuals who leave the workforce to care for an ailing family member or to raise children. A 2009 analysis by the Urban Institute estimated that establishing a caregiver credit would increase Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) outlays by 0.5 percent over the first ten years.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that outlays under OASDI will total $10.81 trillion from FY 2017-2026. A 0.5 percent increase would boost outlays by $54.03 billion over ten years, or $5.4 billion on average per year.

A more recent analysis of a comprehensive caregiver credit is unavailable. In 2015, the Office of the Chief Actuary of the Social Security Administration estimated  that a proposal (listed in the report as B7.3) to provide a credit to parents with a child under six for earnings up to five years would increase the long-range actuarial balance for OASDI by 0.23 percent.

Low-income Earners Benefit Adjustment: “First, rather than expand benefits for everyone, I do want to take care of low-income seniors who worked at low-wage jobs.” (February 11, 2016 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: $5.742 billion ($28.71 billion over five years)

Notes: In 2015, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a report with long-term cost-analyses for various policy options regarding Social Security. Option 33 in the report would introduce a new poverty-related minimum benefit for workers whose earnings are relatively low over a long period. Under current law, eligible beneficiaries receive a minimum benefit of $830 per month. Unlike the standard benefit, the amount is indexed annually based on prices rather than wages. Because earnings generally increase faster than prices, fewer people are eligible each year.

Under the new option reviewed by CBO, the minimum benefit would be increased to $1,220. As noted, CBO only provided a long-term cost projection: “Under this option, Social Security’s total outlays, measured as share of GDP, would increase by 0.2 percentage points in 2040, or by 3 percent from currently scheduled outlays.” A 5 or 10 year estimate is unavailable.

In 2009, CBO reviewed a related option to reform the annual adjustment for the minimum benefit so that it would be based on prices rather than wages:

This option would increase the standard benefit for workers who had more than 20 years of work to their credit but whose average indexed monthly earnings were below those of workers who earned twice the minimum wage for 35 years of full-time work. The effect would be greater for beneficiaries who had more years of work and for those who had lower average indexed monthly earnings. For example, the benefit would be increased by 40 percent for workers who worked full time for 30 years but never earned more than the minimum wage.

CBO determined that this option would increase outlays by $26 billion over the first five years ($28.71 billion in current dollars) and by $147 billion over 10 years ($162.33 billion in current dollars).

Surviving Spouses:  ”[First, rather than expand benefits for everyone ...] And the people who are often the most hard-hit are widows, because when their spouse dies, they can lose up to one-half of their Social Security monthly payment.” (February 11, 2016 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: $1.189 billion ($11.886 billion over ten years)

Notes: In 2015, the Office of the Chief Actuary of the Social Security Administration analyzed a proposal (listed in the report as D4) to establish an alternative benefit for a surviving spouse: “For the surviving spouse, the alternative benefit would equal 75 percent of the sum of the survivor’s own worker benefit and the deceased worker’s [primary insurance amount] (including any actuarial reductions or delayed retirement credits).” This proposal would increase the long-term actuarial OASDI balance by 0.11 percent.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that outlays under OASDI will total $10.81 trillion from FY 2017-2026. A 0.11 percent increase would boost outlays by $11.886 billion over ten years, or $1.189 billion on average per year.

Costs for this proposal could run much higher if the benefits are not targeted to low- to moderate-income households. In 2007, CBO analyzed a related, less-targeted benefit increase for surviving spouses that would have increased outlays by $119 billion ($136 billion in current dollars) over five years.

 

Veterans:

Department of Veterans Affairs (VA): “ … [L]et’s fix the VA … .” (February 4, 2016 Democratic Debate)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Clinton has called to “fundamentally reform veterans’ health care to ensure access to timely and high quality care”, “modernize and refocus” veterans’ benefits, and “overhaul VA governance.” A cost estimate is indeterminate.

Education and Training: “[Hillary’s] plan will expand and solidify educational benefits and programs that help veterans get jobs after their service.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: In a 2014 report, the Congressional Research Service identified eight ongoing federal programs costing $11.83 billion to support the education and training of veterans. Most of this spending, $10.4 billion in FY 2013, was through the Post-911 GI Bill. The Department of Veterans Affairs estimates that this program will cost $12.4 billion in FY 2016. It is unclear what steps Clinton would take to “expand and solidify” these programs.

steps Clinton would take to “expand and solidify” these programs.

Health Care Provider Agreements: “Strategically purchase private-sector care when it makes sense to do so, such as for some specialty inpatient or surgical procedures, expanded access to mental health and substance abuse treatment, or when the VA cannot provide timely access to necessary care. Secretary Clinton would present and advocate for legislation that allows the VA to pursue provider agreements to do this in the most effective and efficient manner … .” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: The existing multi-year $16 billion Choice Program permits eligible veterans to receive care in non-VA facilities. A cost estimate for Clinton’s proposal is indeterminate.

Job Services and Transition Program: “Clinton will  … mak[e] jobs services and transition programs more widely available to loved ones during the months and years after a service member leaves the service.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Note: The Department of Defense (DoD), the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), and the Department of Labor (DoL) each administer programs to provide training and transition services to veterans. For example, DoD received $3.1 billion to administer the Department of Defense Education Activity Schools program in FY 2016 and the VA received $1.37 billion to administer the Vocational Rehabilitation and Employment program in FY 2016. DoL includes four related programs under the Veterans' Employment and Training Service program: Jobs for Veterans State Grants (FY 2016 funding of $175 million); Transition Assistance Program (FY 2016 funding of $14 million); the National Veterans’ Training Service Institute (FY 2016 funding of $3 million); and, the Homeless Veterans’ Reintegration Program (FY 2016 funding of $38 million). It is unclear how Clinton would expand these job service and transition programs to make them “more widely available.”

Mental Health: “As president, Clinton will … [e]nsure continued focus on mental health for military members and families by enhancing [Department of Defense] programs to help remove the stigma of mental health issues and by developing a comprehensive whole-of-life approach with the [Department of Defense] Suicide Prevention Office that includes education, training, counseling resources, and family outreach … .” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Note: A cost estimate is indeterminate. The Suicide Prevention Office received $32 million in FY 2016.

Women Veterans: “Secretary Clinton would work to pass bipartisan legislation that requires VA medical facilities to meet the health care needs of women veterans. In addition, Secretary Clinton calls for … [n]ew funding to ensure women equal and respectful, going beyond simply modifying facilities and increasing the number of OBGYNs employed by the [Veterans Health Administration (VHA)], to include expanding provider training, ensuring culturally-competent VHA staff and policies, and providing other gender-specific health services – including mental health services; [r]equiring the provision of reproductive services across the VHA to ensure women have access to the full spectrum of medical services they need; [b]roadening initiatives to provide childcare at VA medical facilities … .” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: Clinton has not specified a funding level for this proposal and a cost estimate is indeterminate.

 

Miscellaneous:

Horse Slaughter for Human Consumption Ban: “As president, Hillary will ... [p]rotect horses by ending the slaughter of horses for human consumption ... .” (source)

Cost per Year: $5 million ($25 million over five years)

Notes: In 2007, Senator Clinton was a cosponsor of S. 311, a bill to “prohibit the shipping, transporting, moving, delivering, receiving, possessing, purchasing, selling, or donation of horses and other equines to be slaughtered for human consumption.” The text authorized $5 million per year.

Horse Soring Prevention: “As president, Hillary will ... [p]rotect horses by ... cracking down on the practice of horse soring, where chemicals or other inhumane methods are applied to horses’ limbs to exaggerate their gait.” (source)

Cost per Year: $1 million ($5 million over five years)

Notes: Related legislation has been introduced in Congress as S. 1121 & H.R. 3268, the Prevent All Soring Tactics (PAST) Act. The legislation would require the Department of Agriculture to “establish requirements to license, train, assign, and oversee persons hired by the management of horse shows, exhibitions, sales, or auctions to detect and diagnose sore horses.” The Congressional Budget Office estimated that identical information introduced in 2014 (S. 1406) would cost $1 million per year to implement.

Initiative on Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (AAPI): “Hillary will reauthorize the White House Initiative on AAPIs and enhance its regional networks in an effort to better connect local AAPI communities to federal services.” (source)

Cost per Year: Indeterminate

Notes: It is unclear what Clinton how Clinton would “enhance” the regional network of the Initiative.

 

Research and Analysis by:

Demian S. Brady, Director of Research

Research assistance by:

Spencer Woody, Research Associate

Andrew Wilford, Associate Policy Analyst

NTUF is the research affiliate of the National Taxpayers Union, a non-profit taxpayer advocacy group founded in 1969. Note: For additional analyses of Presidential candidates’ spending agendas, visit www.ntu.org/foundation.

 

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