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Latest Taxpayer's Tab: CBO's Economic Outlook
Posted By: Michael Tasselmyer - 02/09/14

Tab Insert

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its annual Budget and Economic Outlook report this week, and their projections for the next ten years won't inspire much confidence for those concerned with the country's debt and deficits. In the latest edition of The Taxpayer's Tab, NTUF delves into the CBO's report and offers an analysis of the long-term trends they predict, which include steadily increasing deficits after next year and a publicly-held debt topping 79 percent of GDP by the end of the next decade.

Also featured this week:

  • Most Expensive: Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) introduced the Small Business Innovation Act of 2013. S. 1285 would provide $1 billion over the next five years ($200 million annually) to various financial stimulus programs within the Small Business Administration.
  • Least Expensive: Senator Dean Heller (R-NV) introduced the Steps Toward Access and Reform (STAR) Act of 2013 in order to reform the current medical malpractice system. S. 1860 would save $18 billion over the next five years by capping the amount that doctors can be sued for over noneconomic damages and limiting the timeframe during which a lawsuit can be filed.
  • Most Friended: In order to address concerns over whether Healthcare.gov offers adequate protection of users' personal information, Congressman Joseph Pitts (R-PA) drafted the Health Exchange Security and Transparency Act of 2014. H.R. 3811 would require the Department of Health and Human Services to notify users of any security breach within two days.

The full issue, with more information on these bills and the CBO report, is available online.

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Whoever Said “Talk is Cheap”? A State of the Union Analysis - Speaking of Taxpayers, Jan. 31 (AUDIO)
Posted By: Dan Barrett - 02/03/14

$40 BILLION is the cost of President Obama's State of the Union, and that's just what can be quantified - NTUF's Demian Brady explains. Plus, Pete talks Obama's hypocrisy on energy; and the Outrage of the Week goes to the Super Bowl (sort of)! 

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Report: Last Night’s Speech has $40 Billion Price Tag
Posted By: Dan Barrett - 01/29/14

NTU Foundation researchers were up long into the night and woke up extra early to tabulate the proposed costs in this year’s State of the Union (SOTU). Similar to NTUF’s candidate studies, we went line-by-line through the speech & identified all of the legislative actions President Obama proposed to the Nation. We then referenced those items with cost estimates from his own budget, legislation being considered in Congress right now, and third parties (like the Congressional Budget Office) to come up with a total spending agenda. Here’s a breakdown:

  • Number of Spending Increases: 12
  • Number of Spending Decreases: 1
  • Items with Unknown Spending Effects: 16
  • Total Number of Items: 29

Though this was not President Obama’s longest SOTU address, he managed to announce 29 different policies that would affect the budget. Because of the lack of information included in his speech and in documents released by the White House, NTUF was able to score 13 of those items; the other 16 could resurface with more clarity in future legislative measures, executive orders, or more regulations in the U.S. Code. How much are we talking about? Check out the totals:

  • Spending increases: $40.098 billion
  • Spending decreases: ($103) million
  • Total 2014 SOTU Net Spending: $39.995 billion

This total is light compared to last year’s $83.41 billion SOTU cost, but remember that this is just under $40 billion in NEW spending (i.e. adding to the deficit, which is projected to be $744 billion this year, according to the Administration’s Mid-Session Review). So if the 13 items were enacted, the government would be forced to borrow more money and keep future taxpayers on the hook for today’s decisions.

The largest budget-changing proposals include (figures are annualized):

  • Comprehensive Immigration Reform: $20.2 billion
  • Extending Emergency Unemployment Benefits: $12.8 billion
  • Providing 4 Year-Olds with Pre-Kindergarten: $3.5 billion

The only savings proposals that NTUF was able to clearly identify was a call to prevent future bailouts of the housing market, which was matched with a bill currently in Congress that would decrease spending by $103 million each year. S. 1376, the FHA Solvency Act was covered in a recent edition of The Taxpayer’s Tab and would bring in more mortgage insurance premium fees (counted as an offset to direct spending). More information on this bill can be found in a post by NTUF Policy Analyst Michael Tasselmyer (coming soon).

Wondering how each of President Obama's speeches compare? Check out NTUF's homepage.

Stay tuned for more SOTU analyses from the best team of tax and budget analysts in the country. 

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Price the Proposals Cheat Sheet: How much NTU and Foundation Staff Think SOTU Will Cost
Posted By: Dan Barrett - 01/28/14

Set to start at 9 p.m. tonight, President Obama will deliver his State of the Union (SOTU) Address to a joint session of Congress. The White House has mentioned a few things that may come up in the President’s annual speech but taxpayers are left in the dark as to what exactly he plans for in 2014. Yesterday, NTUF Policy Analyst Michael Tasselmyer has compiled the rumors and reports in a post but questions remain. How much does the President aim to raise the minimum wage? Will his government-sponsored jobs programs be new or more of the same? More importantly, how much will this cost today’s (and tomorrow’s) taxpayers?

NTU wants to see what the grassroots think and are sponsoring a “Price the Proposals” contest (with prizes!!!) to add some fun in with the pomp and circumstance of our political leaders making grand plans for our challenging times. I’ve received quite a few questions about the contest, many of which ask for any insider information that I’ve come across. Sorry folks, this post is no great unveiling of hush hush Administration documents and plans. BUT I wanted to see what NTU and Foundation’s staff thought about the rumors making their way around the Beltway. More to the point, I had everyone place a guess in the “Price the Proposals” contest to see how they ultimately measure up to the line-by-line report, produced by NTU Foundation, and the 362,000 NTU members, all busily racing to place their guesses for a chance at the glory of victory. Remember that these guesses, as yours will be too, are only directed at new spending. Don’t think about tax changes just yet. Here’s where we stand:

  • Our Average Guess: $125 billion annual spending increase
  • Highest Guess: $1 trillion by Creative Content Manager Tim Howland
  • Lowest Guess: $120 million by Director of Development Rick Lipman
  • Our Average Number of Standing Ovations: 13
  • Highest Guess: “It’ll be one long continuous standing ovation” – Director of Research Demain Brady
  • Lowest Guess: “Just 3 standing ovations for the Pres” – State Government Affairs Manager Lee Schalk

So there you have it, some educated guesses from America’s oldest grassroots taxpayer organization. Think you’ll be more accurate with this new information? Head over to our “Price the Proposals” page and place your guess! Remember, you can’t win unless you play!

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TONIGHT: "Price the Proposals" of the State of the Union Address
Posted By: Dan Barrett - 01/28/14

Expecting More or Less Government from Tonight’s Speech? Guess Right and Win!

Play our 2014 "Price the Proposals" game to test your budget brain power and win prizes!

Click Here to Play the Price the Proposals Game!

There are now just a few hours left for you to guess how much new savings or spending President Obama will call for in his State of the Union Address (SOTU) in our “Price the Proposals" game!

Time is running out, submit your entry now!

If you make the closest guess to what National Taxpayers Union Foundation’s analysis finds, without going over, you win! Runners-up receive prizes too, but you can’t win unless you enter!

Simply go to www.ntu.org/sotu2014.

What you’re playing for:

  • $50 Visa gift card
  • A one-year Reason magazine subscription
  • Special "Team Taxpayer" gear

Watch the speech to find out what the President proposes, and join with the 362,000 members of National Taxpayers Union and staff online for commentary, fact-checking, and taxpayer talk:

Deadline for entry: January 28th (TONIGHT) at 10 p.m. ET

Please don’t set this aside – enter now before you miss out on the fun!

Then, in the days ahead, stay tuned for a special post-SOTU analysis with NTU and NTUF staff, which will be on our blog soon after the President’s speech.

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Preview: The President's SOTU Proposals
Posted By: Michael Tasselmyer - 01/27/14

Leading up to tomorrow night's State of the Union address, the White House has made at least one thing abundantly clear: the President has both a pen and a phone at his disposal.

While those instruments will probably get plenty of use during the speechwriting process, the Administration has been using the line to emphasize that if Congress doesn't act on certain agenda items, the President will -- either through executive orders or other unilateral actions.

  • The focus of this year's SOTU speech, according to White House advisor Dan Pfeiffer, will supposedly be on creating middle-class job security, with proposals to strengthen retirement safety nets and offer more jobs and skills training programs.
  • Income inequality will likely be a major talking point for the President this year, especially in the wake of recent public debate over minimum wage hikes.
  • As far as "big-ticket" proposals are concerned, it's possible that the President will use the speech to reiterate his support for expanded early childhood education and comprehensive immigration reform, as the Washington Post reports.
  • Don't expect to hear much about the deficit or looming debt ceiling debate, a subject that's caused plenty of political controversy over the past few months.

The price tag accompanying the President's proposals will depend on how specific he'll be in describing his goals for this so-called "year of action." You can follow along with NTU and NTUF staff tomorrow night for real-time analysis during the speech, as well as in the days after as we break down the President's agenda and what it means for taxpayers.

Be sure to let us know ahead of time what you think the agenda will cost!

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New Report Raises Doubts about F-35 Jobs Claims
Posted By: Nan Swift - 01/22/14

Today the Center for International Policy’s Director of Arms and Security Project, William Hartung (a colleague of NTU’s), released a critical report disputing the number of jobs generated by the costly F-35 joint strike fighter program. The report also raises questions concerning the use of foreign contractors and Lockheed campaign contributions.

Fittingly entitled, “Promising the Sky: Pork Barrel Politics and the F-35 Combat Aircraft,” some of the significant findings of the report include:

  • Lockheed Martin’s claim of 125,000 F-35-related jobs is roughly double the likely number of jobs sustained by the program. The real figure, based on standard estimating procedures used in other studies in the field, should be on the order of 50,000 to 60,000 jobs.
  • Similarly, the company’s claim that there is significant work being done on the F-35 in 46 states does not hold up to scrutiny. Even by Lockheed Martin’s own estimates, just two states – Texas and California – account for over half of the jobs generated by the F-35. The top five states, which include Florida, Connecticut and New Hampshire – account for 70% of the jobs.
  • Eleven states have fewer than a dozen F-35-related jobs, a figure so low that it is a serious stretch to count them among the 46 states doing significant work on the program. These states are Iowa, South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Delaware, Nebraska, North Dakota, Alaska, Hawaii, Louisiana and Wyoming.

According to the most recent Selective Acquisitions Report, the total cost for the F-35 program, including both the aircraft and engine subprograms, is $391.2 billion. Other, more inclusive estimates put that total much higher. Despite the program’s numerous setbacks, delays, cost increases, and engineering problems, lawmakers have nonetheless given the F-35 one pass after another. One of the major reasons for the lack of serious scrutiny the F-35 has received has been the repeated claims by military Keynesians that the program is an important “job creator of the highest order, a program that has a home in almost every state.”

This new report reinforces critics’ (NTU among them) arguments that funding for the F-35 shouldn’t be on autopilot. Further, the report underscores the need to apply new scrutiny to not only the F-35, but other major weapons systems as well. NTU has long held that the F-35 program has not adequately justified its huge appetite for taxpayer dollars. We have discussed options such as scrapping the B and C variants in joint reports with the R Street Institute as well as U.S. PIRG.  Given the disparate values and goals of our partner institutions, the fact that both reports would put the F-35 under the spotlight is a clear indicator that it’s time to take a hard look at the program now..

Getting to the truth about the job-creator myth that has grown up around the F-35 is an important part of reexamining and rethinking how taxpayer funds are spent at the Pentagon.  Now, as Mr. Hartung concludes his report, “…Congress and the executive branch can feel free to debate the future of the F-35 on its strategic merits, not pork barrel politics.”

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Taxpayer’s Tab Supplemental: NOAA Funding and H.R. 2413
Posted By: Dan Barrett - 01/21/14

In the latest edition of The Taxpayer’s Tab, NTU Foundation highlighted H.R. 2413 as the week’s Wildcard bill, which is the section where we highlight proposals we find particularly interesting but that do not fall into any of the other three bill highlight sections. The Weather Forecasting Improvement Act would dedicate new resources to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to research and predict “high impact weather events,” occurring both nationally and globally.  More specifically, NOAA would receive funding to purchase new equipment and conduct research that improves its forecasting abilities ahead of extreme weather phenomena like Superstorm Sandy or last year’s Midwest tornadoes.

The text of the bill as introduced set an authorization of appropriations of $120 million for the years FY 2014-2017. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analyzed the bill to determine the outlays, i.e., the actual amount of federal spending that would occur as a result of the authorizations. CBO reported that the programs covered by the bill received funding of $80 million in FY 2013 but it was not sure of actual outlays for FY 2014. Beginning in FY 2015 spending would begin to increase from $89 million reaching $119 million in FY 2017. CBO also determined that additional funding ($42 million through FY 2017) would be required for research and planning. Based on this data, NTUF estimated that the bill would increase spending by a net of $115 million over four years.

That is what we wrote in the Tab, which went out to our subscribers last Thursday. Since the release, NTUF analysts have been contacted by staffers on the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology to help clarify their position and intentions regarding H.R. 2413. The Committee staffers told us that they disagreed with the conclusion of the CBO report:

The Weather Forecasting Improvement Act does not increase the overall authorization for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Instead, it prioritizes weather forecasting research from funds made available for research at NOAA. At present, NOAA spends more than twice as much on climate change research as it does on weather forecasting research. The bill, as amended and passed by the Committee in December, does not affect direct spending or revenues, contains no unfunded mandates, and does not does not increase the overall authorization for NOAA, NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, or the Operations, Research, and Facilities account at [the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)].

In short, Committee staff say that H.R. 2413 transfers funds from NOAA climate change research to weather prediction research. However, there are a few things to consider in reading our article, reading the Committee’s response, and looking at the CBO cost estimate:

  • BillTally Methodology: The goal of NTUF’s signature project is to determine the original spending intention of legislators and cosponsors. Thus, we analyze the text of bills as originally drafted, not as amended in Committee or on the floor of either the House or Senate. In the original language of H.R. 2413, there is no section that formally details a funding transfer (or explicitly prevents new spending to occur) and so we scored the measure as new spending. However, we only look at spending relative to pre-existing authorizations (known as the baseline). In the case of H.R. 2413, CBO determined that $80 million had already been dedicated to similar activities in 2013. The $115 million total in the Tab represents our estimate of the additional spending it would take beyond that to implement the bill’s provisions.

  • CBO Cost Estimates: Occasionally, CBO estimates do not reflect the intentions of bill sponsors. Sometimes this occurs because the text of legislation does not fully outline those intentions, CBO does not interpret the change in law as is outlined in the bill, or both CBO and the sponsors do not account for all the factors (such as current spending or the full costs of implementing a measure).

  • Sponsor/Committee Response: It should be noted that the staffers’ explanation reflects a version of the bill “as amended and passed by the Committee in December” whereas NTUF scores legislation as introduced. Often times, bill text is amended to reflect the changes negotiated in committee or to correct errors in the introduced versions. These actions can change how a bill is interpreted and scored by CBO and so, in keeping with NTUF’s BillTally methodology, we score the initial version of every bill introduced in Congress.

What this means for H.R. 2413: The Committee amended the bill and ordered it to be reported, which means staffers will prepare a written report about the bill including its intentions, section-by-section analysis, and cost information. After that, it would need to be placed on the House’s legislative calendar for floor consideration. In the event the language has been clarified as the Science Committee staff says, the bill would result in a transfer of existing funds and would not increase federal spending.

What this means for taxpayers: For Americans concerned with the accuracy of federally-funded meteorology, especially with regards to large destructive weather events like hurricanes and tornadoes, NOAA will have more resources to improve their predictions and models. This assumes that the redirected-funding for weather research yields better results.

What this means for NTUF’s article and BillTally score: Because the transfer changes were made in the amended version of H.R. 2413 and not the introduced version, we will still record the financial impact of the bill as we reported it in The Taxpayer’s Tab: $29 million ($115 million over four years). This score will be reflected in the agendas of H.R. 2413's sponsor and cosponsors when we release our First Session BillTally report in the coming months. It will likely have a marginal impact on an individual’s proposed spending agenda, but that will also depend on the Member’s other proposals.

Something to remember: NTU Foundation is a 501(c)3 organization and so does not take a stance on any legislation, candidates, or the fitness of currently serving officials to serve. BillTally and The Taxpayer’s Tab is intended to educate Americans on the proposals and spending that can affect the federal budget and their own pocketbooks. We are happy not only to write about the many measures being considered in Congress, but also to clarify our work as a bill evolves and makes its way through Congress.

Not a Taxpayer’s Tab subscriber? Get the most up-to-date research from the BillTally project and the spending trends of Congress now!

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Will the President's Speech Price Taxpayers Out of Prosperity?
Posted By: Dan Barrett - 01/21/14

Join NTU online to win prizes and chat with your fellow taxpayers during the President’s State of the Union Address – and play our 2014 “Price the Proposals” game to test your budget brain power and win prizes!

Click Here to Play the Price the Proposals Game!

In just one week, President Barack Obama will deliver his 2014 State of the Union (SOTU) Address to Congress and the nation. What policies will he propose? How much will his agenda add or cut from the budget? National Taxpayers Union wants to know what you think!

Before the end of the SOTU speech on January 28th, go to www.ntu.org/sotu2014 and make your guess about how much the Address might cost or save taxpayers. The closest guesses to our researchers’ analysis of the speech (without going over) could win:

  • $50 Visa gift card
  • A one-year Reason magazine subscription
  • A special “Team Taxpayer” Kit

Then, join us online during the speech!:

Our policy experts and grassroots advocates will give you up-to-the-second commentary and the real facts behind the President’s plans.

So, come on down and “Price the Proposals” during President Obama’s State of the Union “showcase” next Tuesday!

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